We started the Baugher Brief blog off with a winner last weekend and instead of sticking with just one pick this time we are going for two.
UNC Coach Mack Brown and Clemson Coach Dabo Swinney
Last week FSU lost a close one in Raleigh to NC St. and the week before that they lost outright to Wake Forest as a touchdown favorite. Kickoff is set for 7:30 on ABC in Tallahassee, Florida.
The Tigers showed a flash of why they are in the college football playoff conversation again after shutting Boston College out in the second half last week on the road. Clemson comes into this game averaging 170 rushing yards a game which is scary for the Seminole defense who ranks 88th in FBS against the run.
You have to wonder how much is left in the tank at this point of the season for FSU, who had big expectations coming into the season.
Last week QB Jordan Travis threw a bonehead interception in crunch time and the defense couldn’t get a stop despite the NC St QB leaving the game injured. The backup didn’t even have to attempt a pass, that’s how bad this run defense is.
Don't overthink this one and back the playoff pedigree team to shine under the bright lights.
Bet: Clemson Tigers (-3.5); bet up to (-6)
UNC (-7) @ Duke: Next we are going to Durham, NC, where the blue bloods will battle it out for bragging rights in front of the rivaled fanbases at 8:00 on the ACCN. UNC head coach Mack Brown is 11-0 all time against Duke and home field won't even matter when the UNC crowd fills the stadium out of spite.
The spread in this game is also too low as while these games have historically been tight, I see an edge for UNC this time. Keep in mind the Tar Heels smoked 'em by 31 last year.
UNC overs used to be a cash cow except somehow the coaching staff has finally shown a decent defensive identity. Keeping VT to 10 points and Miami to 24 is more than good for UNC's standards and if they can perform at a similar level in this game, Duke will get boat raced.
Freshman QB, Drake Maye is having an amazing year to say the least, ranking 7th in FBS with 1,903 passing yards and currently has a 90 QBR, second in the country. UNC will do their share of scoring quickly and often against a Duke defense that hasn't been tested yet.
While Duke football is having a good year so far at 4-2 (wins over Temple, North Western, NC A&T, and Virginia), they will not be ready for what is coming on Saturday night. UNC will come motivated and hungry as they know this win will be another step closer to the ACC championship game if they play their cards right.
While Carolina lost to Norte Dame, they’ve at least been battle tested. You can’t say the same about Duke. They are in for a rude awakening at 8:00 Saturday night.
Bet: UNC (-7); bet up to (-10)
P.S. You can certainly buy the hook for both of these games but you won't need to. Remember it's more profitable in the long run if you take the spread as is at -110 rather than piling on juice. Also bet early in the week as these lines change drastically after they open and closing line value is always nice to have in pocket. The Clemson spread already moved a point (-4.5) this morning which makes me feel more confident in my pick that money is pouring in on my side.
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